State Of Autonomy: April Recap

MIT’s “DuckieTown”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0B6S2Ca75Q

Every month, I recap the news articles I’ve consumed around autonomous vehicles, calling out the highlights and keeping track of market projections. This is also your chance, dear readers, to nominate a topic for discussion in the following month.

April had a serendipitous moment as research from RAND brought forward a bubble-popping reality check that autonomous vehicles would need to be driven upwards of a billion real-world miles to generate statistically significant evidence of being “safer”… only to see that report met with a statement by Elon Musk days later, claiming Tesla’s Autopilot mode has resulted in 50% fewer accidents over the 50MM miles it’s covered since its late 2015 release.

Both camps are a little fuzzy on their math, but it’s all good food for thought when swallowed in moderation and even more interesting when consumed together.

That said, humanity doesn’t have much of a track record around holding back transportation innovation due to any lack of a rubber stamp on being “safer than the last thing”, so my take on it — as usual — is that academics just don’t get it.

Now, regarding my blog… I trashed a nearly-finished piece on the fallacy of the “technology race” because it just wasn’t interesting enough. That’s how much I care about you guys. I’ll probably only squeeze one post out in May as I’ll be off the grid, so I’ll try to make it a rousing one.

This Month’s Highlights:

• Florida Becomes First U.S. State To Allow Autonomous Vehicle Testing On Public Roads Without Onboard Personnel
• RAND Calculates AVs Would Need Upwards Of A Billion Real-World Miles Before Safety Could Be Reliably Demonstrated
• Elon Musk Claims Your Odds Of Getting Into An Accident Are 50% Lower When Using Tesla Autopilot
• Google, Ford, Volvo, Uber & Lyft Form Autonomous Car Political Lobby
• Senate Introduces “Car Hacking” Enforcement Bill With Wildly Vague Language Regarding What Constitutes A Hack
• Volvo Names London As Its Second City Targeted For A 2017 Public Trial Of One Hundred Consumer-Operated Autonomous Cars
• China Planning Committee Believes They May Have National Regulations For AVs By End Of Year
• Baidu Announces Establishment Of Its First Silicon Valley-Based AV Research Team
• Silicon Valley Investor Joshua Schachter Launches Inaugural Autonomous Vehicle Track Day For May 28th/29th

Market Predictions:

Predictions are based on official statements from manufacturers, technology companies, and industry consultants. Exact year claimed may be +/- 1 due to statement variations or because I was lazy in making the chart.

Coming In May:

• How Microfees Will Change Our Driving Behavior (late May)
• Your suggestion? Send a tweet to @mitchturck

Reactions From The Public:

Re: Elon Musk’s Claim That AutoPilot Feature Decreases Accidents

Re: Toyota’s Technology That Would Disable Human Control In Emergencies

Re: Formation Of The Autonomous Vehicle Lobbyist Group